SARB Repo Rate in South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank's policy rates from 2013 to 2022 reflected the country's economic challenges. Initially, rates were increased to combat inflation and stabilize the Rand. However, in 2020, in response to the COVID-19 economic fallout, rates were significantly reduced to historic lows to support economic growth. By 2022, as the economy began recovering and inflationary pressures emerged, the central bank started increasing rates.
The SARB Repo Rate ended 2022 at 7.00%, up from the 3.75% end-2021 value and higher than the reading of 5.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Sub-Saharan Africa was 11.80% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
South Africa Interest Rate Chart
South Africa Interest Rate Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SARB Repo Rate (%, eop) | 6.75 | 6.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 7.00 |
3-Month JIBAR (%, eop) | 7.61 | 7.16 | 3.87 | 3.85 | 6.50 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 9.44 | 9.02 | 9.70 | 9.82 | 11.30 |
SARB stays put again in March
At its 27 March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held fire, leaving the repurchase rate at a 15-year high of 8.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The decision was unanimous and had been anticipated by markets.
The SARB’s hold was driven by a slow return of inflation to the mid-point of the Bank’s 3.0–6.0% target band; both headline and core inflation edged up in February, with the former moving close to the upper bound of the range. Moreover, the Bank noted that risks to the inflationary outlook are skewed to the upside. The SARB upwardly revised its 2024 headline and core inflation forecasts to 5.1% and 4.8%, respectively, while it kept the metrics for 2025 and 2026 unchanged. Despite the upward revisions, all six forecasts lie within the Bank’s target band. That said, the SARB now sees inflation returning to 4.5% in Q4 2025—later than in its January forecast. Consequently, the Bank delayed the beginning of the normalization of the policy rate. Regarding activity, the SARB left its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2026 unchanged, while it increased its 2025 forecast to 1.4%.
The SARB’s communiqué did not offer explicit forward guidance, but it reiterated, “decisions will continue to be data dependent, and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook”. The majority of our panelists have penciled in the first cut in Q3. The next meeting is scheduled for 30 May.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects South African interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 16 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for South African interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our South African interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of South African interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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